Did We Avoid a Recession? A Look at the Job Numbers and Economic Signals

Last month, the Department of Labor revised a years’ worth of data for new jobs added. It turns out there had been an overcount of 818,000 jobs between March 2023 and March 2024, and the correction signals that job growth has been worse than previously reported. The corrected numbers are 28 percent lower. This morning, the latest job numbers were released, and they were below expectations. This continues recent trends, which could signal that we are already in a recession—an economic reality I believe we are facing.

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